Modelling and mapping of the COVID-19 trajectory and pandemic paths at global scale: A geographer’s perspective

Abstract

Abstract:In December2O19,the virus SARS-CoV-2 responsiblefor the COVID-l9pandemic was detectedin the Chinesecity of Wuhan. The virus started to spread from China and dispersedover the rest of the world. In March 2020,WHO (World Health Organization)declared COVID-l9a pandemic.The transmissionpath of the pandemic was acceleratedby different types of transporration. With completeanalysis of spatial data, populationdensity, types of traffic networks, and their properties, the spatial distribution of COVID-l9was estimated.GIS (GeographicalInformation System),numerical methods, and software for network analysis were used in this researchto model scenarios of virus distribution on a global scale. The analyzed data included air, railway, marine, and road traffic. In the pandemic research, numerous models of possible traiectory of viruses can be created.Many have a stochasticcharacter.This study includesall countriesin the world affectedby the COVID- 19up to date. In this study, GISmethodssuch as bufier, interpolations,and numerical analysiswereusedin order to estimateand visualize ongoing COVID-l9pandemic situation. According to the availability of new data, trajectory of virus paths was estimated.On the other hand, sparselypopulatedareaswith poorly developedand small traffic network (and isolatedisland territories)tend to be lessor not affectedas shown by the model, This low-cost approachcan be used in order to define important measuresthat needto be addressedand implementedin order to successfullymitigate the implications of COVID-19not only on global, but local and regional scalesaswell.