Assessment of air temperature and precipitation trends: case study of Mačva (Serbia)

Abstract

Recent climate change causes significant natural and socio-economic consequences. Global climate changes are caused by natural processes and anthropogenic factor. They represent one of the major environmental problems of the late XX and early XXI century. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a significant role of understanding climate change issues. It includes numerous extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires etc. Empirical studies show an increase in the average global air temperature and a decrease in the sum of precipitation. According to regional differences in temperature and precipitation regime change, Southern Europe including the Republic of Serbia, occupies a special place. Mačva (860 km²) belongs to the northwestern part of Serbia. It stretches between the Sava River in the north and east, the lower part of Drina River in the west and the Pocerina River in the south. The fertile pedological substrate makes Mačva a significant agricultural region of Serbia. This region is particularly sensitive to climate impacts, especially from the point of view of sustainable agricultural production. In the paper will be presented trends of two climate variables: mean annual air temperature and mean annual sum of precipitation on the territory of Mačva. Methodologically, air temperature and precipitation trends will be calculated by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. For analysis were used data from three available meteorological stations in Mačva (1949-2015). The aim of this paper is to present recent climate change where the use of GIS tools plays a significant role in the interpretation of results. The presented results of the trends in air temperature indicate that there is a statistically significant positive trend in all time series. In the trends of precipitation sums, a statistically significant positive trend was observed in the two time series.The application of GIS tool indicates the presence of regional differences in the spatial distribution of the selected parameters. Climate changes also affect society. A particularly sensitive sector is agriculture, with a share of 6-7% of Serbia's GDP. This leads to the need of adaptation in terms of agricultural production in the affected area. However, this process is an interaction of geographical, socio-economic, political, cultural, environmental and institutional factors. Unfortunately, the issue of climate change in the Republic of Serbia has not been given serious attention in the published strategy documents.